World Cup final could shape the 2026 Ballon d’Or
When Spain and Argentina meet in Sunday’s World Cup final at New York New Jersey Stadium, the match could decide more than the world champions. The result may effectively settle the 2026 Ballon d’Or, with Lamine Yamal and Lionel Messi going head to head as two of the award’s leading candidates.
Messi chasing a record ninth
Messi, at 39, is looking to win a record-extending ninth Ballon d’Or. The 19-year-old Yamal hopes to better his second-place finish from 2025.
The Argentine has guided Argentina to a second successive World Cup final. He has eight goals and four assists in the tournament.
He narrowly leads the Golden Boot race. Mbappe also has eight goals, but Messi holds one more assist.
Victory on Sunday would make Messi the first player in history to captain his nation to back-to-back World Cup triumphs. The level of opposition in Major League Soccer must be considered when judging his Inter Miami stats, yet his World Cup exploits leave little doubt he remains among the very best.
Yamal’s route to the top
Yamal has one goal and no assists in seven games this summer. He has not dazzled as he did at Euro 2024.
He has been central to a Spanish side reaching its first World Cup final since 2010. For Barcelona, he posted 24 goals and 18 assists in 45 games.
He missed the final month of that club campaign through injury. Barcelona won La Liga but fell in the Champions League quarter-finals.
Spain probably need to win the World Cup if Yamal is to be named the world’s best. History shows how difficult it is to take the prize without a major trophy that year.
The trophy barrier for other contenders
Of the past 19 Ballon d’Or wins, 15 went to a player who also won the Champions League, World Cup, European Championship or Copa America that year. Messi accounted for three of the four exceptions, in 2010, 2012 and 2019, and Ronaldo the other in 2013.
That leaves Kane, Haaland, Mbappe, Olise, Rice and Bellingham facing long odds despite strong numbers. More often than not, a nominee needs to win a major continental or international trophy.
Harry Kane scored 61 goals in 51 club games as Bayern Munich won a league and cup double. Semi-final exits in the Champions League and World Cup could cost him.
“I could score 100 goals this season, but if I don’t win the Champions League or the World Cup, I’m probably not going to win the Ballon d’Or,” Kane said in November. “It’s the same with any player. You have to be winning those major trophies.”
Other names in the race
Michael Olise scored 22 and assisted 31 in 52 games for Bayern. He leads the World Cup with five assists, yet England’s 2-0 semi-final loss to Spain hurt his case.
Mbappe scored eight this summer after topping La Liga and Champions League scoring. A trophyless Real Madrid season and World Cup exit make his first Ballon d’Or unlikely at 27.
Haaland won the Premier League Golden Boot for the third time in four seasons. He settled for an FA Cup and Carabao Cup double and scored seven goals at Norway’s first World Cup in 28 years.
Ousmane Dembele took the 2025 prize after winning the Champions League with Paris St-Germain. A successful defence this year means Dembele and team-mate Khvicha Kvaratskhelia are in the conversation.
Dembele secured Ligue 1 and the Champions League again and boosted his chances with five goals and two assists at the World Cup despite injuries. Kvaratskhelia shone in Europe with 10 goals and seven assists, but Georgia did not qualify for the World Cup.
Bellingham dragged England to the semi-finals, yet an injury-hit year and no silverware rule him out. Rice should reach the top 10 after Arsenal’s Premier League title and near-European crown.
In one of the tightest races in history, the decisive moment might not have happened yet.